Estimating Mobile Contactless Payment Systems Usage in Turkey Using Grey Prediction Model

Main Article Content

Halil ŞEN

Abstract

Technological developments brought about by digitalization have made several innovations in many areas from economy to social life a part of our lives. The most important of these innovations was the electronicization of trade. Electronic commerce forced payment systems to change and differentiated them. The rapid development of the technology of mobile devices and the rapid spread of use also shaped the change in payment systems. Today we are talking about mobile payment systems. The change in payment systems also caused changes in physical credit cards, and contactless payment systems with credit cards became widespread. Mobile contactless payment systems have also started to be used through applications downloaded to mobile devices without the need for a physical credit card. After the convenience of contactless payment with credit card, many banks started to offer their customers the convenience of contactless payment by mobile phone.


In this study, the demand for the use of mobile contactless payment systems in Turkey was estimated using the grey prediction model for the coming years. In determining demand forecast, the grey prediction model, which is included in the grey system theory, which was first presented by Deng in 1982, was used. It is a model that is used to make high-precision predictions based on a small number of data and has achieved successful results in many areas. In this study, some of the data were used for estimation and some for analysis of estimation results. In this study, high sharpness results were obtained.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
ŞEN, H. (2023). Estimating Mobile Contactless Payment Systems Usage in Turkey Using Grey Prediction Model. The European Journal of Research and Development, 3(1), 86–96. https://doi.org/10.56038/ejrnd.v3i1.226
Section
Articles

References

EUROPEAN COMMISSION. (2012, January 11). GREEN PAPER Towards an integrated European market for card, internet and mobile payments . https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52011DC0941&from=EN

Kutsal, S. (2018). Dünden bugüne dijital ödeme sistemlerinin evrimi - Digital Age. https://digitalage.com.tr/dunden-bugune-dijital-odeme-sistemlerinin-evrimi/

BOZPOLAT, C., & SEYHAN, H. (2020). Mobil Ödeme Teknolojisi Kabulünün Teknoloji Kabul Modeli ile İncelenmesi: Ampirik Bir Araştırma. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(1), 119–145. https://doi.org/10.18074/CKUIIBFD.619852 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.619852

Ju-Long, D. (1982). Control problems of grey systems. Systems and Control Letters, 1(5), 288–294. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6911(82)80025-X DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6911(82)80025-X

Liu, S., & Lin, Y. (2006). Grey Information : Theory and Practical Applications. In Grey Information. Springer London. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-84628-342-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-84628-342-6

Hsu, L. C. (2003). Applying the Grey prediction model to the global integrated circuit industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70(6), 563–574. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00195-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00195-6

Lin, C. T., & Yang, S. Y. (2003). Forecast of the output value of Taiwan’s opto-electronics industry using the Grey forecasting model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70(2), 177–186. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00191-3 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00191-3

Lin, C. T., & Yang, S. Y. (2004). Forecast of the output value of Taiwan’s IC industry using the Grey forecasting model. International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, 19(1), 23–27. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCAT.2004.003657 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCAT.2004.003657

Trivedi, H. V., & Singh, J. K. (2005). Application of grey system theory in the development of a runoff prediction model. Biosystems Engineering, 92(4), 521–526. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.BIOSYSTEMSENG.2005.09.005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2005.09.005

Lee, Y. S., & Tong, L. I. (2011). Forecasting energy consumption using a grey model improved by incorporating genetic programming. Energy Conversion and Management, 52(1), 147–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENCONMAN.2010.06.053 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2010.06.053

Mohammadi, A., Moradi, L., Talebnejad, A., & Nadaf, A. (2011). The use of Grey System Theory in predicting the road traffic accident in Fars province in Iran. Australian Journal of Business and Management Research, 1(9).

Mao, Z. L., & Sun, J. H. (2011). Application of Grey-Markov Model in Forecasting Fire Accidents. Procedia Engineering, 11, 314–318. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PROENG.2011.04.663 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2011.04.663

Zhao, Z., Wang, J., Zhao, J., & Su, Z. (2012). Using a Grey model optimized by Differential Evolution algorithm to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China. Omega, 40(5), 525–532. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OMEGA.2011.10.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2011.10.003

Zhang, Y., Xu, H., & Zheng, Y. (2012). Chinese residents’ cold chain logistics demand forecasting based on GM (1,1) model. African Journal of Business Management, 6(14), 5136–5141. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJBM11.3043 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5897/AJBM11.3043

Tsai, M.-T., Hsiao, S.-W., Liang, W.-K., Tsai, M. T., Hsiao, S. W., & Liang, W. K. (2013). Using Grey theory to develop a model for forecasting the demand for telecommunications. https://doi.org/10.1080/02522667.2005.10699664 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02522667.2005.10699664

Shen, X., & Lu, Z. (2014). The Application of Grey Theory Model in the Predication of Jiangsu Province’s Electric Power Demand. AASRI Procedia, 7, 81–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.AASRI.2014.05.033 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aasri.2014.05.033

Hamzacebi, C., & Es, H. A. (2014). Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model. Energy, 70, 165–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENERGY.2014.03.105 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.03.105

Bankalararası Kart Merkezi, Mobil Temassız / Karekodla Yapılan Ödeme İşlemleri https://bkm.com.tr/mobil-temassiz-karekodla-yapilan-odeme-islemleri. Accessed: 2022-09-17